SPECIAL EDITION: What we’re watching ahead of Tuesday’s elections

Hello there, readers! Election Day is right around the corner, so we’re bringing you a special edition of our newsletter with the latest news and analysis on this year’s midterm elections.

When the polls close Tuesday night, the 2026 U.S. election will go down as one of history’s most expensive and extraordinarily ugly midterms — galvanizing record-breaking early voter turnout among a deeply divided electorate, States Newsroom’s D.C. Bureau reports. Tens of millions of Americans have already cast ballots in an election that could determine control of Congress, possibly flipping one or both chambers from Republicans to Democrats. 

Election integrity remains a major concern. President Donald Trump has led a massive legal campaign to assert authority over state-run elections as Election Day nears. Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has pursued litigation against Alaska and California, seeking, for different reasons, to set aside some voters’ ballots.  

The ongoing battle has state election officials concerned about federal election interference. The U.S. Department of Justice plans to dramatically increase deployment of election monitors to include every state, expanding on a long-standing practice in a way that has drawn concerns.

As Election Day approaches, find your state voter guide and read our latest coverage here. On Election Day, visit News From The States for live updates and catch developing news on the go by following us on Bluesky and Instagram. See you then.

This year’s midterm elections could tilt the balance of power in Congress, and influence the direction of the president’s remaining two years in office.

Republicans currently have a 218-214 advantage in the House, with one independent and two vacancies. Democrats need to gain four seats for a majority. 

Major forecasts and pollsters favor Democrats to take the House, though some experts observe that years of gerrymandering and new political boundaries designed to split majority Black districts, combined with entrenched polarization, could blunt a so-called blue wave. 

Most U.S. House races this year are not competitive, so results in 16 designated as toss-ups by prominent election analysts will likely determine party control, States Newsroom’s D.C. Bureau reports. 

Those include Ohio’s 7th District, where Republican Rep. Max Miller, who is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, is seeking a third term.

Other toss-up races include California’s 22nd District, Iowa’s 2nd District, Michigan’s 7th District, New York’s 17th District and more races you can read about here.

Few U.S. Senate races have been designated as toss-ups by election analysts, but they have had plenty of drama. In addition to the turmoil complicating Alaska’s Senate race, featuring two Dan Sullivans and one Mary Peltola — who has been accused of trying to recruit spoiler candidates — Michigan’s Senate race between Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican candidate Mike Rogers will be one to watch.

Related coverage: 

There are 36 governor’s races on state ballots this year — about a dozen of them tightly contested. Democrats could win a majority of governor’s offices for the first time in 16 years, with toss-up races in Georgia and Nevada, where Republicans currently hold office, and in Kansas, where Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited.  

In Wisconsin, it’s a close race for governor — and control of both chambers of the state Legislature are up for grabs. 

Eighty-eight of the country’s 99 state legislative chambers are up for election. There are tight races for control of one chamber or another in 15 states, including Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. 

In addition to battles for party control, a Ballotpedia analysis found that 13 state legislative supermajorities could be broken this year. 

Podcast: Listen to Stories From The States’ reporters roundtable on gubernatorial and legislative races to watch here.

In some states, ballot measures are expected to be the main force driving voters to the polls in November. Voters will decide more than 140 questions on topics ranging from data center regulations in more than a dozen Ohio communities to more restrictive rules for citizen-led ballot efforts in North Dakota and South Dakota.  

Reproductive rights are on the ballot in four states. In Idaho, a proposed constitutional amendment would restore access to abortion in the state, which has a near-total ban. Missouri’s ballot question asks voters to reinstate a state ban — four years after voters overturned restrictions at the ballot box. 

Missouri voters will also decide whether to repeal Republican-gerrymandered congressional district lines enacted last year. And congressional redistricting is also on the ballot in Maryland, where Democratic leaders want voters to loosen court-ordered rules for drawing districts to allow the party to increase its power and counter GOP efforts in other states. 

In California, residents will decide on a “billionaire’s tax,” among other issues. 

Voters in nine states will weigh changes to their criminal legal systems and drug policies. Ballot initiatives in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, South Dakota and West Virginia aim to ban noncitizen voting, which is already illegal in federal elections and extremely rare. 

Across the country, this year’s statewide ballot measures are written, on average, at a graduate-school reading level, according to Ballotpedia’s newest Ballot Measure Readability Report, and some require careful reading for voters to cast their ballots as intended, Stateline reports. 

Podcast: Listen to Stories From The States’ reporters roundtable on some key ballot measures here.

Affordability: A growing number of voters are taking their anger about affordability to the polls and blaming Trump’s tariffs for rising costs. New research shows Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs on imported goods have cost business owners and consumers billions of dollars. 

Immigration: The Trump administration cut naturalization sharply over the past year, leading to accusations it’s holding back hundreds of thousands of people who might have voted in the midterms.

Data centers: In the course of a single election cycle, the backlash against data centers has grown from an issue at local planning commission and city council meetings to become a flashpoint in state and federal races across the country.

Women on the ballot: A record number of women, 3,824, are running for state legislative seats, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. Women make up 35.5% of all state legislative candidates this cycle.

Independent candidates: Four independent candidates for U.S. Senate this year are the main opponents of incumbent Republican senators. All hail from states Trump won easily and where Democrats struggle in statewide elections: Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota. But their campaigns come at an opportune moment.

The pivotal U.S. Senate race in Alaska is embroiled in threats from the president and probes from the state’s governor over a candidate appearing on the ballot with the same name as the Republican incumbent. The controversy is similar to a 2024 episode in Washington, when three Bob Fergusons ran for governor, Washington State Standard reports.

The Trump administration preemptively sued to stop certification of Alaska’s race if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses by a margin less than the number of ballots cast for a second Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher. In the days since, The New York Times reported that Democratic operatives sought to recruit “spoiler” candidates in an effort to bolster former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who denied involvement. 

The Washington same-name scenario played out when then-Attorney General Bob Ferguson, a Democrat, entered the 2024 race for governor as the front-runner. 

It quickly got weird when Republican Glen Morgan convinced two Bob Fergusons to join the race, and paid their $2,000 filing fees.

After a furor, however, the two other Bob Fergusons dropped out of the race before the issue reached the courts, sparing the state the kind of last-minute turmoil Alaska is experiencing.